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Market Cycle: How it Affects Private Lending and What Investors Should Know -Analyzing How Different Real Estate Market Cycles Impact Private Lending

Written by Ignite Funding | May 30, 2025 3:00:00 PM

It’s halfway through 2025, and for investors, much of the conversation has centered on debt, recessions, market cycles, and more specifically, tariffs. While it's not uncommon to see these discussions surface at the beginning of a new presidential term, this one stands out. We’re witnessing the convergence of several powerful economic forces: lingering high inflation from the pandemic era, record-breaking national debt, elevated Fed interest rates, erratic market cycles, and an aggressive stance on tariffs.

It's no surprise that many investors are feeling lost.

As chaotic as the current climate may seem, this too is part of a market cycle. It’s just a longer and more complex one than many are used to navigating.

Traditional “wait-it-out” investment strategies, which have weathered countless market cycles in the past, no longer hold the same appeal. That’s because investors today have access to a broader range of opportunities for growing their capital, even during times of volatility. Some of these options are entirely new, like cryptocurrency, while others, such as passive real estate investments have only recently become accessible to the average investor. However, with many of these modern alternatives, we lack the historical data to fully understand how they’ll perform in today’s unique economic environment.


 

But what about real estate and the real estate market cycle?

One of the most resilient ways to grow your wealth, even amid chaotic market cycles, is through real estate. Its tangible nature provides an inherent sense of value that persists regardless of market conditions. Demand doesn’t disappear during times of uncertainty; it simply shifts. The key lies in having the insight and expertise to identify where that demand is and how to underwrite opportunities accordingly.

Historical Market Cycles

During the 2008 financial crisis, owning rental properties in the right markets proved to be a strong, well-performing strategy.

Real estate has long been a go-to asset class for navigating market cycles, dating back to the earliest days of private property ownership. However, for much of that time, many individuals were either priced out or restricted by accreditation requirements that limited access to these opportunities.

Fortunately, today there are real estate investment options that remain under the radar for many. Options that check two important boxes: passive and open to all. One such opportunity is fractionalized note investing. In simple terms, investors purchase a portion of real estate-backed debt and receive a fixed monthly yield until the debt is repaid. When backed by strong underwriting and managed by a capable team, this structure can be an exceptional investment vehicle.

That said, in times of economic uncertainty, even seasoned investors question whether real estate can truly be immune to the broader market cycle.

The short answer? It’s not entirely immune, but under the right conditions, it can come pretty close.

Ignite Funding and the Current Outlook

To set the stage, let’s briefly review the trends shaping 2025, then we’ll explore why companies like Ignite Funding become even more compelling in uncertain economic times.

With so much disruption in the current phase of the market cycle, many commercial banks have tightened their lending practices. This pullback leaves builders and developers with fewer traditional funding options. In response, private lending has emerged as a critical source of capital to fill the gap.

Unlike commercial banks, private lenders can offer capital at higher interest rates, and they’re willing to do so because they understand how to underwrite risk and recognize the value of short-term, fixed-interest debt investments. These investments can often yield double-digit returns. One of the most attractive aspects for the lender? If the borrower defaults, the real estate itself serves as collateral.

It’s no surprise that this dynamic presents a prime opportunity in today’s real estate market cycle. Experienced builders and developers understand their local markets and the intrinsic value of their projects. They’re often willing to accept higher interest rates if it means securing the capital they need to move forward, knowing the upside potential far outweighs the cost of borrowing.

Real estate isn’t the only way to navigate a volatile market cycle, but it’s certainly one of the most resilient. And thanks to platforms like Ignite Funding, even everyday investors now have access to passive real estate investments that offer strong, consistent returns, regardless of where we are in the real estate cycle. Best of all, these investments are backed by real, tangible assets.

Conclusion

Understanding the market cycle is essential for investors seeking stability and long-term growth, especially in today’s unpredictable environment. While many asset classes struggle to find steady ground, real estate-backed private lending continues to offer a compelling alternative. With predictable yields, tangible collateral, and increased demand driven by restricted commercial lending, this strategy proves its value across varying phases of the real estate cycle. As options like fractionalized note investing become more widely available, even retail investors can now access opportunities once limited to institutions. It’s a powerful way to not only preserve wealth during uncertain times but also to grow it, positioning investors to thrive, not just survive, through any market cycle.